Who is More Likely (Not) to Make Home-Based Work Trips During the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Case of Scotland

In this study, we used survey data (n = 6,000) to investigate the work trip patterns of Scottish residents at various points of the COVID-19 pandemic. We focused specifically on the reported patterns of weekly work trips made during the government-enforced lockdown and subsequent phases of restriction easing. This was of particular importance given the widespread changes in work trips prompted by COVID-19, including a significant rise in telecommuting and a reduction in public transport commuting trips. The survey data showed that the vast majority of respondents (similar to 85%) made no work trips during lockdown, dropping to similar to 77% following the easing of some work-related restrictions. Zero-inflated hierarchical ordered probit models were estimated to determine the sociodemographic and behavioral factors affecting the frequency of work trips made during three distinct periods. The model estimation results showed that the socioeconomic characteristics of respondents influenced work trips made throughout the pandemic. In particular, respondents in households whose main income earner was employed in a managerial/professional occupation were significantly more likely to make no work trips at all stages of the pandemic. Those with a health problem or disability were also significantly more likely to make no work trips throughout the pandemic. Other interesting findings concern respondents' gender, as males were more likely to complete frequent work trips than females throughout the pandemic, and differences between densely populated areas and the rest of Scotland, as respondents from a large city (Edinburgh or Glasgow) were significantly more likely to make frequent work trips as restrictions were eased.

Sociodemographic Factors Affecting Outdoor Exercise Trips During the COVID-19 Lockdown

We employ a state-of-the-art modelling framework to determine the significant factors affecting rates of outdoor exercise trips during Scotland’s COVID-19 lockdown, using data from public surveys conducted by Transport Scotland. The random parameters ordered probit modelling approach is used for its ability to account for the potential effect of unobserved heterogeneity stemming from explanatory variables. The framework is extended further to also allow for detection of heterogeneity among the means of random parameters. We show that various sociodemographic factors (relating mainly to household social grade, employment status and disability) significantly influenced the frequency at which outdoor exercise trips were made during lockdown. Specifically, those who are self-employed, those from a social DE household (the household’s main income earner is employed in a manual occupation or is unemployed) and those with a health problem or disability, were shown to be significantly more likely to complete no outdoor exercise during lockdown, and therefore, these groups are at greater risk of the associated mental and physical illnesses. Model results are linked to issues surrounding transport equity, as personal vehicle ownership was found to significantly affect the rate of outdoor exercise trips made by disabled individuals. Policy implications are discussed with regards to mitigating the effects of the pandemic on the future health state of groups exhibiting low exercise levels.